:Product: 0320RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 676 km/s at 20/1617Z. Total IMF
reached 23 nT at 20/0412Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 20/0510Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 500 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Mar), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (22 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (23 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 080
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  021/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  016/022-015/020-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    35/30/25