:Product: 0322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 664 km/s at 22/0530Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4050 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Mar, 24 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 080
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  017/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  016/018-013/015-008/058

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    35/25/20