:Product: 0323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 22/2140Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10083 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (26 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 079
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  010/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/05
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/10