:Product: 0326RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 26/0357Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/2125Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1507 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (27 Mar, 29 Mar)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (28 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Mar 080
Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar 079/077/076
90 Day Mean        26 Mar 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  018/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  008/010-020/025-014/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/60/60