:Product: 0327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 27/1849Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 27/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/1903Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 888 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (28 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (29 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (30 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 080
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 078/077/077
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  020/025-015/018-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/50