:Product: 0328RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 28/0611Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 27/2217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
28/0021Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 727 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (31 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Mar 075
Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        28 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  013/018-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/20
Minor Storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/50/25