:Product: 0401RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 01/0521Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 31/2239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/2243Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 273 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 078
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr 073/073/071
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/20