:Product: 0402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 02/0914Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 02/1939Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
02/1515Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1164 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (03 Apr, 04 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 072
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 072/070/070
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  005/005-006/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/25