:Product: 0403RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 409 km/s at 03/0000Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
02/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/1105Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Apr 073
Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 073/073/072
90 Day Mean        03 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  006/005-006/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/25