:Product: 0404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 377 km/s at 04/0110Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Apr,
06 Apr, 07 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 070
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  006/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25