:Product: 0405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 343 km/s at 05/1458Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/1042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
05/1053Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 398 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Apr, 07 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 072
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  008/008-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/20