:Product: 0406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 05/2211Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
06/0152Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/1839Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 212 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (09 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 074
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr 074/072/072
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  008/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/10