:Product: 0407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 07/1759Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 07/1142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 07/1347Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (08 Apr, 10 Apr)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (09 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 076
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr 074/072/072
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  010/010-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/30
Minor Storm           15/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/30