:Product: 0408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr, 11 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 506 km/s at 08/0508Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
07/2136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
07/2124Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 132 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 074
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  015/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  006/005-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/30/30