:Product: 0409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s at 08/2112Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 165 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Apr, 11 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (12 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 078
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  008/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/20