:Product: 0410RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 404 km/s at 09/2205Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
10/1848Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/1451Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 141 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 070
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15