:Product: 0411RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 383 km/s at 11/1859Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/1906Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/2220Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (14 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 073
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/20