:Product: 0412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 391 km/s at 11/2234Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/0619Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0545Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 376 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 083
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  006/005-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/20/20