:Product: 0415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 15/0533Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 15/1242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 15/0533Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 Apr, 18 Apr)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (17 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 072
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  014/018-015/020-015/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/65/50