:Product: 0422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
22/0921Z from Region 2817 (N18W88). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Apr,
24 Apr, 25 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 489 km/s at 21/2148Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15548 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Apr), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (24 Apr) and quiet to major storm levels on day three
(25 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 084
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 084/084/082
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  009/010-008/008-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor Storm           15/10/40
Major-severe storm    01/01/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/05
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/40/70