:Product: 0424RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/2312Z from Region 2817 (N18, L=336). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Apr,
26 Apr, 27 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 519 km/s at 24/0459Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 23/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 23/2118Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 4918 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (26 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (27
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Apr 079
Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr 079/079/078
90 Day Mean        24 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  015/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  019/025-013/015-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/10
Minor Storm           35/15/01
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    75/50/10