:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (01 May, 02
May) and expected to be very low on day three (03 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 358 km/s at 30/1424Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
30/0344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
30/1522Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1836 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (02 May, 03 May).

III.  Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 073
Predicted   01 May-03 May 072/070/070
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  006/008-014/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor Storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/50/40