:Product: 0501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 385 km/s at 01/1803Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
01/1506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/1345Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 522 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03
May, 04 May).

III.  Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 072
Predicted   02 May-04 May 070/070/072
90 Day Mean        01 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  014/015-011/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/40/40