:Product: 0503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 503 km/s at 03/1635Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
03/0502Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/0914Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 231 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 May) and quiet levels on
days two and three (05 May, 06 May).

III.  Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 072
Predicted   04 May-06 May 072/074/076
90 Day Mean        03 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/10