:Product: 0504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May, 07 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 499 km/s at 03/2351Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
04/0409Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/0002Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 239 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May, 07
May).

III.  Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 070
Predicted   05 May-07 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        04 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10