:Product: 0505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 446 km/s at 04/2209Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08
May).

III.  Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 070
Predicted   06 May-08 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        05 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10