:Product: 0506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 351 km/s at 05/2153Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
06/1804Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/1106Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 264 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09
May).

III.  Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 071
Predicted   07 May-09 May 071/072/072
90 Day Mean        06 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20