:Product: 0507RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
07/1904Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
May, 09 May, 10 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 331 km/s at 06/2145Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
07/0024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
07/1511Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 282 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10
May).

III.  Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 075
Predicted   08 May-10 May 075/075/077
90 Day Mean        07 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  006/005-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/20