:Product: 0508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
08/1845Z from Region 2822 (N18E57). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 342 km/s at 08/0739Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
07/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
08/0836Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 303 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11
May).

III.  Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 076
Predicted   09 May-11 May 076/077/077
90 Day Mean        08 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/10