:Product: 0509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
09/1358Z from Region 2822 (N18E45). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 May,
11 May, 12 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 346 km/s at 09/1811Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/1952Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1300Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 389 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (10 May, 12
May) and quiet levels on day two (11 May).

III.  Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 076
Predicted   10 May-12 May 077/077/079
90 Day Mean        09 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  008/008-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/10/20