:Product: 0510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 May,
12 May, 13 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 367 km/s at 10/0422Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
10/0514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/0741Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 619 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).

III.  Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 077
Predicted   11 May-13 May 077/077/080
90 Day Mean        10 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  006/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  008/008-007/008-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/40/45