:Product: 0511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 May,
13 May, 14 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 359 km/s at 11/0600Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
10/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/2101Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 220 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 May, 13 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 May).

III.  Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 076
Predicted   12 May-14 May 076/078/078
90 Day Mean        11 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  007/008-014/016-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/45/25