:Product: 0512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/0935Z from Region 2822 (N18E05). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May,
14 May, 15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 12/2034Z. Total IMF
reached 23 nT at 12/0837Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 12/1212Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 771 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (14 May) and quiet levels on day three (15
May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 075
Predicted   13 May-15 May 076/078/080
90 Day Mean        12 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  025/053
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  015/022-009/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/15
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    55/25/20