:Product: 0514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May,
16 May, 17 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 420 km/s at 13/2225Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
14/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/1937Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 197 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 May, 16 May) and quiet to
active levels on day three (17 May).

III.  Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 071
Predicted   15 May-17 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        14 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  006/005-006/005-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/45