:Product: 0515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
May, 17 May, 18 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 15/0949Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/0446Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/0543Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 192 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 May), quiet to active levels on day
two (17 May) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (18 May).

III.  Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 073
Predicted   16 May-18 May 073/073/077
90 Day Mean        15 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  006/005-008/012-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/45/50