:Product: 0516RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s at 15/2114Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
16/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/1032Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 197 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (18 May) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (19 May).

III.  Event probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 073
Predicted   17 May-19 May 073/077/077
90 Day Mean        16 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  008/012-013/018-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/50/55