:Product: 0519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
May, 21 May, 22 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 386 km/s at 19/0701Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
19/0712Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
19/1925Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (20 May,
21 May, 22 May).

III.  Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 076
Predicted   20 May-22 May 074/073/073
90 Day Mean        19 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  007/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20