:Product: 0523RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/2136Z from Region 2824 (N21E13). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May,
26 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 474 km/s at 22/2144Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 794 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 May), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (25 May) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (26
May).

III.  Event probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 May 079
Predicted   24 May-26 May 079/079/079
90 Day Mean        23 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  006/005-011/008-028/042

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/40
Minor Storm           01/15/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/50/65