:Product: 0524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (25 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (26 May, 27 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 404 km/s at 23/2248Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1262 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 May), active to
major storm levels on day two (26 May) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (27 May).

III.  Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    10/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 073
Predicted   25 May-27 May 073/073/072
90 Day Mean        24 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  011/018-028/048-015/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/40
Minor Storm           25/35/25
Major-severe storm    05/25/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           25/15/25
Major-severe storm    65/80/65