:Product: 0525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
May, 27 May, 28 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 333 km/s at 25/1922Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1531 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (26 May), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (27 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (28 May).

III.  Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 084
Predicted   26 May-28 May 082/082/078
90 Day Mean        25 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  028/042-015/022-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/20
Minor Storm           35/25/05
Major-severe storm    25/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    80/65/30