:Product: 0529RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
28/2313Z from Region 2824 (N19W68). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (30 May) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on day two (31 May) and expected to be very
low on day three (01 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 476 km/s at 29/1904Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
29/0409Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/1001Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15 pfu at 29/0320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May), quiet levels on
day two (31 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M    15/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 May 076
Predicted   30 May-01 Jun 074/072/072
90 Day Mean        29 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  008/008-006/005-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/35
Major-severe storm    25/10/40