:Product: 0601RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jun,
03 Jun, 04 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
averaged near 300 km/s.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jun 075
Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        01 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  014/015-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/25/25