:Product: 0603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 321 km/s at 03/0116Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 03/0628Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
03/0530Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 076
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  008/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10