:Product: 0604RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jun,
06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 439 km/s at 04/2039Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
03/2327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/0153Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 143 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 077
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun 077/077/077
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10