:Product: 0606RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (07 Jun, 08
Jun) and expected to be very low on day three (09 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 341 km/s at 06/0629Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
06/0556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/2134Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Jun), unsettled to active levels on
day two (08 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 077
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun 076/076/074
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  005/005-011/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/25
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/40/30