:Product: 0608RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/1723Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 08/0055Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 07/2136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
07/2141Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Jun, 10 Jun)
and quiet levels on day three (11 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jun 080
Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun 080/078/075
90 Day Mean        08 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  007/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/20