:Product: 0609RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 10 0015 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/1159Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 08/2215Z. Total IMF reached 3
nT at 08/2227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT. 
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 149 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 079
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun 078/075/075
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 007/005-007/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10