:Product: 0615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 15/1646Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 15/1214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 15/1208Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 255 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day
three (18 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 076
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  015/020-015/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/35
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/45