:Product: 0616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 16/0007Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
15/2126Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 921 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (18 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (19 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 076
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  014/014-010/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/25/10
Minor Storm           25/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    60/35/10