:Product: 0618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (19 Jun, 20
Jun) and expected to be very low on day three (21 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 541 km/s at 18/0908Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/2316Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
18/0934Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4737 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 077
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun 077/077/075
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10